Last Updated: 26 July 2022
The bitcoin exchange rate has grabbed a price gain of about 25 percent since reaching the local bottom of $17,500 on June 18. That rebound came after a 75 percent correction from the all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021.
A few indicators suggest that there is little to no potential for bitcoin to fall further at this point.
— csCrypto News (@cscryptonews) July 26, 2022
The Weekly RSI
The first sign that bitcoin has reached a macro bottom comes from the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI became “oversold” after falling below 30 during the week of June 13.
For the first time since December 2018, this brought the RSI into this region in terms of score. Interestingly, the bitcoin bear market also reached its bottom that month before rising 340 percent to $14,000 in the following six months.
Bitcoin NUPL jumps above zero
Another sign of the bottom comes from the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) indicator. This indicator measures the difference between the market cap and the realized cap, represented as a ratio.
If the NUPL gives a score of above zero, investors are at a profit. The higher the number, the more investors are in the plus.
On July 21, the bitcoin NUPL climbed above zero at a time when the price was dangling around $22,000. Historically, such a “flip” has caused massive price explosions.
Profitability of miners
The third signal that we have reached the bottom comes from the Puell Multiple. This indicator measures the profitability of miners, and its impact on the bitcoin price.
The indicator does this by dividing a ratio of daily revenue for miners by the annual average of the same statistic.
A strong Puell Multiple score means miners are relatively profitable compared to the annual average. The higher the Puell Multiple, the closer we are to the top of the market and vice versa.
At the time of writing, we are at similar levels to those seen during the March 2020 crash and 2015 and 2018 bottoms.