5939 being right isnt the same as making money year 2009 month 06 itemid 127


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Being Right Isn’t The Same As Making Money

Written by Jim Wiandt

June 03, 2009 05:17 (CET)

Here is a great YouTube homage to Peter Schiff, which shows him being repeatedly right about what has happened in the economy over the last year:

There they are literally laughing at him as he repeatedly gets it just about spot-on regarding the macroeconomic state of affairs and outlook for the global economy, for the dollar, for commodities, for real estate, for financials. It’s a stunning demonstration of insight or luck. As the charismatic Schiff underscores, if you stay with your points long enough, at some point you’ll be hailed as a genius.

I actually happen to believe that Schiff is incredibly intelligent and right in many things. Investing, it seems, is not one of them, though. As markets repeatedly demonstrate, they can stay irrational much longer than you can stay solvent.

Schiff’s investing tends more toward the speculative than to the scientifically risk-controlled, based on his views, and the result for investors has been a brutal drubbing over the last year, mainly based on a big, big bet against the dollar, which is only now beginning to pan out (I guess Peter did not factor de-leveraging or psychological safe-haven-seeking into his theory).

So, once again, it’s good to be aware, but it’s even better to hedge your bets.



The views expressed by those blogging are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for any security.

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