Last Updated: 5 September 2022
Based on price movements, it is already fairly easy to conclude that we are not currently in a bull market, but the aSOPR on-chain indicator indicates the same.
What is the aSOPR indicator?
The Adjusted Output Profit Ratio is an indicator developed to track transactions on the blockchain that are at a virtual profit or loss, which makes it possible to predict certain price trends.
If we look at virtual losses, we can see that during the bear market, long periods of realised losses are needed to find a bottom for a new uptrend. This happens because market participants are looking for moments to jump out of the market and thus limit their losses.
Moves like this often cause bitcoin to be sold back at the Realised Price, the average purchase price, as many people then reduce their losses to zero. At the time of writing, bitcoin has started to fall again from that average price, which means people are selling to cut their losses.
When does the bull market begin?
The big question, of course, is when will the bull market start again. There are currently so many factors involved that it is impossible to answer this question with certainty. In particular, the macroeconomic environment is so dark at the moment that it seems we will have to make do with these rates for many months to come.
US inflation is still at 8.5% and that is certainly not a sign for the Federal Reserve to veer off course. On 13 September, the new inflation figures come out, which may change this, but it would take a miracle for them to fall back to the 2% target.
The aSOPR indicator also seems to agree with this analysis, as it is basically a reflection of market behaviour. People currently have so little confidence in the future that they are selling to limit their losses.