Last Updated: 19 October 2022
The percentage of all bitcoin that has switched wallets in the past six months is moving towards an all-time low. In the last six months, only 18.12 per cent of all bitcoin in circulation has switched wallets, which currently represents about 3.485 million bitcoin.
End of the bear market?
If Glassnode analysts are to be believed, we often only see these kinds of percentages towards the end of a bear market. Most people who wanted to sell have done so by now, and the bitcoin in question has largely been taken over by people who trust in bitcoin’s long-term value.
You have to remember that against every sale there is also a buyer. People who buy at the current prices are not doing so only to sell again in a panic later when bitcoin sets another deeper bottom. Of course there will be a few who do, but the bulk will buy the bitcoin they buy now with an idea.
Historically, very low volumes of mobile supply typically occur after prolonged bear markets.
— glassnode (@glassnode) October 18, 2022
So, if Glassnode’s analysis is to be believed, we are now at or around the bottom. Which, by the way, is not to say that we will immediately start an advance from now on; we may very well continue to roam around the bottom for a long time.
Volatility on the way
Glassnode analysts further feel that it cannot be long before we enter a period of extreme volatility. Volatility has been suppressed for a long time and the price has remained relatively stable around $19,000, but that will soon come to an end, according to Glassnode.
“Volatility is probably shining on the horizon, the bitcoin price never stands still for very long,” Glassnode’s new report reads.
It is almost extraordinary to see how long bitcoin has been moving in this price range. Indeed, this is something that has not happened much in bitcoin’s price history. In this respect, the current price action is exemplary of the uncertainty currently prevailing in the markets, especially at the macroeconomic level.