Last Updated: 26 July 2022
Bitcoin has fallen 5% in the last 24 hours, failing to reward this month’s positive sentiment. This month’s rise has not been completely wiped out (yet), but as the price has fallen, the number of bitcoin addresses with profits has dropped below 50%.
Is bitcoin looking ahead?
It seems the bitcoin price has already priced in tomorrow’s news. It is expected that the US central bank will announce a raise in interest rates tomorrow. Announcements like this always cause volatility in the market, not just bitcoin but the stock market as well.
47% bitcoin addresses in the plus
With today’s drop, fewer and fewer bitcoiners are (obviously) making a profit. Bitcoiners were one of the few hodlers who remained profitable during the current bear market. Even when other major cryptocurrencies saw the number of holders in profit drop below half, more than half of bitcoiners wrote green numbers. Until now, that is.
According to data from IntoTheBlock, the number of bitcoin holders in profit has fallen in recent days. In total, 47% of all wallets are currently in the plus. This means that 6% are about even, and 46% are in the minus. Even though there are more addresses that are in the plus than in the minus, it is only a small margin. And since last week, the profitable percentage has dropped by more than 3%.
To arrive at these percentages, we look at unique addresses whose bitcoin has an average purchase price lower than the current price. Purchase price is defined here as the price at the time coins were sent to an address.
68% of all bitcoin in the plus
A similar but also informative statistic is the number of bitcoins circulating with profit or loss. Instead of looking at addresses, we now look at individual bitcoins and add up the value whose price at the time they were last moved was respectively lower or higher than the current price.
The graph below shows the supply of bitcoins in profit/loss at a given time. It looks at the average of the last 7 days, so the data may be slightly behind. The chart is from Theblock, and the data is from Glassnode.
Currently, 68% of all bitcoin are in the plus.
87.4% of all days are profitable
Another interesting chart is the profitable days. Since bitcoin’s existence, 87.4% of all days are profitable. This methodology is mainly intended to show the long-term strength of bitcoin.
This means that if you bought bitcoin during 87.4% of the number of days in the total trading history of bitcoin, (and did not do anything stupid with it) the purchase value is lower than the current bitcoin price.
Bitcoin is not a tool for getting very rich very quickly. This tool shows how people who have simply held bitcoin long enough are rewarded over time. Green indicates gain, and red indicates a loss.