Bitcoin Macro Index predicts end of bear market: “Rare buying opportunity that almost never happens”

Last Updated: 2 August 2022

The Bitcoin Macro Index of Charles Edwards’ investment fund made its biggest improvement of 2022 in July. Currently, the profile and depth of the Macro Index most closely resemble the January 2019 period when bitcoin was trading at a price of $3,500.

“Rare opportunity”

On the website of Capriole Investments, Charles Edwards’ investment fund, they write about this event as a “rare opportunity.” Based on this, the fund decided in June to increase its exposure to bitcoin by 60 percent and plans to add another 25 percent this month.

“This month, we left the ‘deep value’ region. This kind of opportunity only occurs 1.6 percent of the time during a cycle. In other words, historically, every four years you have about 23 days to pick up bitcoin at the prices we saw in the past few months,” Capriole Investments said.

It also reports that last month marked the biggest recovery in on-chain fundamentals since 2021. The Bitcoin Macro Index is a collection of 35 on-chain and macroeconomic data points.

End of bear market?

If Charles Edwards’ Bitcoin Macro Index is to be believed, we have already had the best chance to stack cheap sats this cycle. According to this collection of indicators and data points, this would mean that we have already started the transition phase to a bull market or that we are currently in a new bull market.

Of course, these are only indicators that make predictions about the future on the basis of past results. An interesting way to predict the course of bitcoin’s price, but it cannot provide certainty.

In the end, it seems that the fate of the market is in the hands of the Federal Reserve. If inflation does not decline, then there is a chance that the Federal Reserve will continue to pursue its goal of controlling inflation. Which would mean dealing with higher interest rates for longer than expected, and that is not good for bitcoin.

These are factors that this model has difficulty taking into account but are vital for bitcoin’s price movement. So never rely completely on this type of model.

  • Gabriele Spapperi

    I first came into contact with Bitcoin in 2017 - and since then, the topic of cryptocurrencies has never left me. For this reason, I have also made BTC & Co. part of my profession and write as a freelance author for crypto publications.

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