Last Updated: 2 March 2023
If you ask Dutch analyst PlanB, the outlook is almost always bullish for the bitcoin price. Again, he shared on Twitter an “analysis” in which he speculates on a future price explosion for bitcoin. He bases that analysis on bitcoin’s adoption rate and the price performance that has followed it in the past.
Price explosion looming?
In his post, PlanB writes about the jump in the bitcoin price from practically zero to $20,000 due to a 1 per cent adoption rate. That means PlanB has the idea that currently ‘only’ 1 per cent of the world’s population is on bitcoin.
By the way, adoption always remains a vague concept because you can colour it in a lot of different ways. Has someone who owns $50 worth of bitcoin adopted the digital currency? Personally, I would say not. In that sense, it is difficult to express adoption in percentages.
If bitcoin price jumped from $0 to $20k during 1% adoption .. then what will further adoption from 1% to 50% do with bitcoin price? pic.twitter.com/fpkJ4dIk9s
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) March 1, 2023
Anyway, according to PlanB, there is currently 1 per cent adoption and that brought the price to $20,000. In his post, he then speculates about the price explosion bitcoin will experience if adoption rises from 1 to 50 per cent.
We cannot answer this either, but chances are that the share price will be many times higher if bitcoin does indeed manage to reach a 50 per cent adoption rate. The big question is mainly whether bitcoin has what it takes to pull that off in the long run.
The adoption
Earlier this week, PlanB also published about bitcoin’s adoption rate. The analyst did so, of course, with a chart constructed entirely in his own style. In the commentary accompanying the chart, PlanB says he is especially looking forward to the vertical period of the so-called S-curve, which should take place in the next halving period from 2024 to 2028.
Although I enjoyed #bitcoin adoption last 10+ years (especially the investment returns), I am really looking forward to the vertical part of the S-curve in the next halving period (2024-2028)🚀 pic.twitter.com/DJF7yDemqY
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) February 28, 2023
Incidentally, the timing of the vertical part of the S-curve is an estimate by PlanB, based on fairly simple calculations with past data. So it remains to be seen whether we will indeed see that vertical adoption of bitcoin during that period.
