Last Updated: 19 July 2022
At the time of writing, majority of all bitcoins have been at the same address for at least three months. Glassnode indicates that the current “hodl activity” thus resembles that of the bear markets of 2012, 2015 and 2018. In a tweet dated 16 July, Glassnode writes that at least 80 percent of the capital in bitcoin has been in hodl mode for at least three months.
Over 80% of the total USD denominated wealth invested in #Bitcoin has been HODLed for at least 3-months.
This signifies that the majority of the $BTC coin supply is dormant, and HODLers are increasingly unwilling to spend at lower prices.
— glassnode (@glassnode) July 16, 2022
The bitcoin price
From the provisional bottom of $17,600, the bitcoin exchange rate has rebounded to the current price of $21,265. This puts us approximately 70 percent away from the all-time high of $69,044 from November 2021 and leaves 45 percent of bitcoiners with a “paper” loss.
According to Glassnode’s chart, the bottoms of 2012, 2015, and 2018 had similar hodl levels to today’s. A study by David Duong seems to confirm this. Duong concludes that the recent selling pressure is only coming from speculators.
“Long-term bitcoin holders have not yet sold their bitcoin in this weakness. These hodlers hold a total of about 77 per cent of the supply, which is slightly less than the 80 percent of early 2022,” Duong said of the hodlers’ steadfastness.
The tourists are gone
Earlier this month, Glassnode analysts reported that the bitcoin market is currently almost completely “cleaned” of tourists. Activity on the network is currently similar to the darkest moments of the bear market in 2018 and 2019.
Since November 2021, the network was already in a downward trend in terms of the number of active addresses, which means that both new and existing investors are communicating little to no with the network.
An interesting statistic is that the number of bitcoin addresses with 1 or more satoshi has risen to an all-time high of 42.5 million. This is consistent with the observation that “shrimps” addresses with less than 1 bitcoin are currently accumulating bitcoin in large numbers.